The streets of Iran have become a secondary battlefield in a larger global conflict. Following the announcement of a US carrier group arrival, the Iranian government is preparing for the possibility that a military strike will act as a “starter pistol” for a renewed national uprising. The current movement is driven by a unique blend of political frustration and economic desperation, with inflation now at 60%.
The US strategy appears to be a gamble on the Iranian people’s will to overthrow their own government. By targeting political centers and the leadership’s security apparatus, Washington intends to create a power vacuum that the protesters can fill. However, the US administration remains divided on whether it is truly feasible to impose regime change on a nation of 90 million people without causing total chaos.
Many activists within Iran are skeptical of foreign intervention. While they seek the removal of the current leadership, there is a deep-rooted fear that an American attack could trigger a nationalist backlash or a civil war. This “social cohesion” is exactly what Iranian officials like Ali Larijani are trying to weaponize, claiming that protesters are actually “terrorist-like” agents of foreign powers.
Communication remains a major hurdle for the opposition. With internet access throttled for weeks, coordinating large-scale protests has become increasingly difficult. The government’s control over the digital space is a key pillar of its survival strategy, but business leaders warn that the economy cannot sustain such an outage much longer without a total collapse.
As the US fleet moves into position, the question remains whether the Iranian people will see the arriving warships as liberators or as another threat to their sovereignty. The Iranian government is bracing for both a rain of missiles and a flood of protesters, knowing that its survival depends on suppressing one without being destroyed by the other.